Cognitive Dissonance, Sentiment, and Momentum

Constantinos Antoniou, John A. Doukas and Avanidhar Subrahmanyam

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2013, vol. 48, issue 1, 245-275

Abstract: We consider whether sentiment affects the profitability of momentum strategies. We hypothesize that news that contradicts investors’ sentiment causes cognitive dissonance, slowing the diffusion of such news. Thus, losers (winners) become underpriced under optimism (pessimism). Short-selling constraints may impede arbitraging of losers and thus strengthen momentum during optimistic periods. Supporting this notion, we empirically show that momentum profits arise only under optimism. An analysis of net order flows from small and large trades indicates that small investors are slow to sell losers during optimistic periods. Momentum-based hedge portfolios formed during optimistic periods experience long-run reversals.

Date: 2013
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