150 YEARS OF BOOM AND BUST: WHAT DRIVES MINERAL COMMODITY PRICES?

Martin Stuermer

Macroeconomic Dynamics, 2018, vol. 22, issue 3, 702-717

Abstract: This paper provides long-run evidence on the dynamic effects of supply and demand shocks on commodity prices. I assemble and analyze a new data set of price and production levels of copper, lead, tin, and zinc from 1840 to 2014. Using a novel approach to identification, I show that price fluctuations are primarily driven by demand, rather than supply shocks. Demand shocks affect the price for up to 15 years, whereas the effect of mineral supply shocks persists for up to 5 years. Price surges caused by rapid industrialization are a recurrent phenomenon throughout history. Mineral commodity prices return to their declining or stable trends in the long run.

Date: 2018
References: Add references at CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (40)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/ ... type/journal_article link to article abstract page (text/html)

Related works:
Working Paper: 150 years of boom and bust: what drives mineral commodity prices? (2014)
Working Paper: 150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? (2013)
Working Paper: 150 Years of Boom and Bust: What Drives Mineral Commodity Prices? (2013)
Working Paper: 150 years of boom and bust: what drives mineral commodity prices? (2013)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:22:y:2018:i:03:p:702-717_00

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Macroeconomic Dynamics from Cambridge University Press Cambridge University Press, UPH, Shaftesbury Road, Cambridge CB2 8BS UK.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Kirk Stebbing ().