A panel analysis of fertility trends in Europe, with a special emphasis on CEE countries

András Olivér Németh, Petra Németh and László Tőkés

Corvinus Economics Working Papers (CEWP) from Corvinus University of Budapest

Abstract: The aim of our research is to understand and reveal the key economic, demographic, labour market, and other factors behind the common fertility trends of CEE countries in the past decades. Our main research question is what driving forces played a role in the development of the total fertility rate in the CEE countries compared to the rest of Europe, if any. We measure the effect of potential influential factors on fertility with a multiple regression using the ordinary least squares method. We use macro-level data from 27 countries of the European Union with special attention to the 11 CEE countries (namely Bulgaria, Croatia, Czechia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Based on the availability of data, our examination period lasts from 1995 to 2020. Our results suggest that fertility in the CEE countries is much more sensitive to the state of the economy than in other European countries. Moreover, some of the demographic variables that are closely related to childbirth, also have a more recognisable effect on the TFR than in other parts of Europe. On the other hand, labour market and policy variables seem to be less important in Central and Eastern Europe.

Keywords: fertility; Central and Eastern European countries; demographic economics; economic uncertainty; panel data methods (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C33 J11 J13 J18 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023-03-24
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis, nep-des, nep-eec and nep-tra
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:cvh:coecwp:2023/02

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