How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty"

Ray C. Fair ()
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Ray C. Fair: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, https://economics.yale.edu/people/faculty/ray-fair

No 1864, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic forecasts.�The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic forecasts.�This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model.

Keywords: Forecasting uncertainty; Fed policy (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E58 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 23 pages
Date: 2012-06
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-for and nep-mon
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