How Might a Central Bank Report Uncertainty"

Ray C. Fair ()
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Ray C. Fair: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, https://economics.yale.edu/people/faculty/ray-fair

No 1943, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: An important question for central banks is how they should report the uncertainty of their forecasts. This paper discusses a way in which a central bank could report the uncertainty of its forecasts in a world in which it used a single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions are then made as to what might be feasible for a central bank to report given that it is unlikely to be willing to commit to a single model. A particular model is used as an illustration.

Keywords: Central Bank; Uncertainty; Stochastic Simulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E50 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 24 pages
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba and nep-mac
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