Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017

William Nordhaus

No 2084, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: Many areas of the natural and social sciences involve complex systems that link together multiple sectors. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are approaches that integrate knowledge from two or more domains into a single framework, and these are particularly important for climate change. One of the earliest IAMs for climate change was the DICE/RICE family of models, first published in Nordhaus (1992), with the latest version in Nordhaus (2017, 2017a). A difficulty in assessing IAMs is the inability to use standard statistical tests because of the lack of a probabilistic structure. In the absence of statistical tests, the present study examines the extent of revisions of the DICE model over its quarter-century history. The study find that the major revisions have come primarily from the economic aspects of the model, whereas the environmental changes have been much smaller. Particularly sharp revisions have occurred for global output, damages, and the social cost of carbon. These results indicate that the economic projections are the least precise parts of IAMs and deserve much greater study than has been the case up to now, especially careful studies of long-run economic growth (to 2100 and beyond).

Keywords: Climate change; Integrated assessment models; DICE model; Revisions (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H4 Q5 Q54 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 21 pages
Date: 2017-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-ene, nep-env and nep-hme
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (52)

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Related works:
Journal Article: Evolution of modeling of the economics of global warming: changes in the DICE model, 1992–2017 (2018)
Working Paper: Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017 (2017)
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