Trade Models and Macroeconomics

Ray C. Fair ()
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Ray C. Fair: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, https://economics.yale.edu/people/faculty/ray-fair

No 2214, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: This paper discusses some macro links that are missing from trade models. A multicountry macroeconometric model is used to analyze the effects on the United States of increased import competition from China, an experiment that is common in the recent trade literature. In the macro story a fall in Chinese export prices is stimulative. Domestic prices fall, which increases real wage rates and real wealth, which increases household expenditures. In addition, the Fed may lower the interest rate because of the lower prices, which is stimulative. Trade models do not have these channels, and they likely overestimate the negative effects or underestimate the positive effects on total output and employment from increased Chinese import competition. They lack some important aggregate demand channels, which are not likely second order.

Keywords: Trade models; Macroeconomics (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: F1 F4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 27 pages
Date: 2019-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cna, nep-int, nep-mac and nep-opm
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Published in Economic Modelling (January 2022), 94: 296-302

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