Intuitive Beliefs

Jawwad Noor

No 2216, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: Beliefs are intuitive if they rely on associative memory, which can be described as a network of associations between events. A belief-theoretic characterization of the model is provided, its uniqueness properties are established, and the intersection with the Bayesian model is characterized. The formation of intuitive beliefs is modelled after machine learning, whereby the network is shaped by past experience via minimization of the difference from an objective probability distribution. The model is shown to accommodate correlation misperception, the conjunction fallacy, base-rate neglect/conservatism, etc.

Keywords: Beliefs; Intuition; Associative memory; Boltzmann machine; Energy-Based Neural Networks; Non-Bayesian updating (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C45 D01 D90 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 56 pages
Date: 2019-12
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-big, nep-cmp, nep-gth, nep-mic, nep-net and nep-ore
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