Retrospective Voting Versus Risk-Aversion Voting

Ray C. Fair ()
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Ray C. Fair: Cowles Foundation, Yale University, https://economics.yale.edu/people/faculty/ray-fair

No 2279, Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers from Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University

Abstract: According to retrospective voting a bad economy hurts the incumbent party and vice versa. According to risk-aversion voting a bad economy favors the Democrats over the Republicans and vice versa. This paper provides a test of both theories and rejects risk-aversion voting.

Keywords: Retrospective voting; Risk-aversion voting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: E00 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 11 pages
Date: 2021-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-mac and nep-pol
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