L'Efficience informationnelle du marché des paris sportifs: un parallèle avec les marchés boursiers

Christophe Barraud

in Economics Thesis from University Paris Dauphine from Paris Dauphine University

Abstract: The aim of this thesis is to introduce the sports betting market, and more precisely to show how this market forms a simplified framework for observations, close enough to stock markets to test the informational efficiency theory, and lead to unanimous conclusions about its empirical validity. Firstly, we focus on the weak form of informational efficiency and more particularly on an anomaly known as the Favourite Longshot Bias, which was listed in sports betting markets, as well as in stock markets. Thanks to a vast data sample, we prove that transaction costs and bettors’ preferences have a significant impact on odds fixed by bookmakers, and consequently on prices’ structure. Moreover, we also discuss bettors’ rationality and we show how bettors’ behaviour is not so different from that of investors in the stock markets. Secondly, we provide a detailed analysis of the strong form of informational efficiency and more precisely of the spread as an indicator of insider trading in the sports betting market.

Keywords: Paris sportifs; Efficience informationnelle; Rationalité; Favourite Longshot Bias; Betfair; Sports betting; Informational efficiency; Rationality (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: G14 G19 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2012 Written 2012
Note: dissertation
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