Using of Non-Numeric, Non-Exact and Non-Complete Information for Alternatives’ Probabilities Estimation

Nikolai V. Hovanov and Maria S. Yudaeva

DEGIT Conference Papers from DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade

Abstract: A method of alternatives’ probabilities estimation under deficiency of numeric information (obtained from different sources) is proposed. The method is based on the well known Bayesian model of uncertainty randomization. Additional non-numeric, non-exact, and non-complete information about the sources’ significance are used for final estimation of the alternatives’ probabilities. Some examples of the method application to commodities’ prices and currencies rates dynamics forecasting are presented.

Keywords: Ordinal and Interval Information; Randomization of Uncertainty; Random Probabilities (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 7 pages
Date: 2011-09
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-ecm
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:deg:conpap:c016_010

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