Point estimation of certain measures in organizational demography using variable-r methods

Michael Lachanski
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Michael Lachanski: University of Pennsylvania

Demographic Research, 2023, vol. 49, issue 33, 865-904

Abstract: Background: The distribution of job tenure plays an important role in demography, economics, and sociology. Job tenure in a labor market is analogous to age in a population. Demographers have used indirect methods based on variable-r methods to estimate parameters for life table models. The variable-r method can also be employed to estimate the parameters of a job tenure table model that yields the expected length of job tenure and related measures. Methods: Only two retrospective surveys of current employee tenure lengths and a count of between-survey hires are required to estimate the parameters of a period tenure table using the variable-r method. Tenure-specific sources of decrement allow an analyst to estimate the parameters of multiple-decrement tenure tables and associated single-decrement tenure tables that isolate the proximate contribution of a specific decrement to the job separation process. I illustrate and evaluate the method using publicly available US data. Results: Variable-r methods generated reasonable parameter estimates: The expected job tenure was 2.48 years at 2002–2004 decrement rates. Multiple-decrement methods can estimate the fraction of employment relationships that end via job displacement. Cause-deleted tenure tables can capture the static effect of eliminating a particular risk to the population of employment relationships. Contribution: Arthur and Vaupel (1984) provide a framework for studying nonstable populations that subsume the variable-r relations that I utilize in this work. Vaupel had an interest in formal demography throughout his life but started his academic career in business statistics. This paper combines those interests.

Keywords: labor; trends; job insecurity; variable-r method; job stability (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:49:y:2023:i:33

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2023.49.33

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