Developing and implementing the UN's probabilistic population projections as a milestone for Bayesian demography: An interview with Adrian Raftery

Monica Alexander and Adrian E. Raftery
Additional contact information
Monica Alexander: University of Toronto
Adrian E. Raftery: University of Washington

Demographic Research, 2024, vol. 51, issue 1, 1-16

Abstract: Background: Population projections for all countries are published by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) every two years as part of the World Population Prospects (WPP). Since 2015, probabilistic population projections have been published as part of WPP, produced using Bayesian statistical models. Central to this methodological change was a team of statisticians at the University of Washington, led by Professor Adrian Raftery. Objective: This interview with Adrian Raftery details the history of the UNPD WPP probabilistic population projections, including how the project started, the methodological challenges, main takeaways and lessons, and priorities for future research. Contribution: This interview contributes to the record of scientific thought and the advancement of methodology in demographic research. It demonstrates the evolution of a successful scientific project with large scientific impact and a broader influence on the field of Bayesian demography.

Keywords: Bayesian demography; methods development; UN population projections; interview (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol51/1/51-1.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:demres:v:51:y:2024:i:1

DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2024.51.1

Access Statistics for this article

More articles in Demographic Research from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Editorial Office ().