Cohort postponement and period measures

Joshua R. Goldstein and Thomas Cassidy
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Joshua R. Goldstein: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Thomas Cassidy: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2010-015, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: We introduce a new class of models in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. We show how this model fits into a general framework of period and cohort postponement that includes the existing models in the literature, notably those of Bongaarts and Feeney and Kohler and Philipov. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo-adjusted measure of period total fertility in the absence of observed shifts. Simulation reveals that when postponement is governed by cohorts, the cohort-based indicator outperforms the Bongaarts and Feeney model that is now in widespread use. The cohort-based model is applied to fertility in several modern populations.

JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 17 pages
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cmp
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2010-015

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2010-015

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