Retraditionalization as a pathway to escape lowest-low fertility? Characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom”

Sebastian Klüsener, Aiva Jasilioniene and Victoriya Yuodeshko
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Sebastian Klüsener: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Aiva Jasilioniene: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2019-014, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Over the last two decades, Belarus and Russia have witnessed substantial fertility increases that have catapulted their total fertility rates from lowest-low fertility to levels above 1.7 children per woman. While it is frequently argued that greater gender equality is an important mechanism for overcoming low fertility, these developments seem to have instead been accompanied by a retraditionalization of gender attitudes. This paper uses the 2017 Belarusian Generations and Gender Survey to investigate the characteristics and prospects of the Eastern European “baby boom.” We show that the fertility increases are driven by two main components: the recuperation of births postponed during the preceding post-communist transition crisis, and fertility increases among cohorts born in the 1980s. These cohorts also display very traditional gender attitudes. While the recuperation will not have a long-term impact, it is more uncertain whether or not the cohort fertility increases will be sustained.

Keywords: Belarus; below-replacement fertility; cohort fertility; cumulative fertility; fertility increase; life tables (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 31 pages
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cis and nep-tra
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2019-014

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2019-014

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