Revisiting the J-shape: human development and fertility in the United States

Henrik-Alexander Schubert, Christian Dudel, Marina Kolobova and Mikko Myrskylä
Additional contact information
Henrik-Alexander Schubert: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Christian Dudel: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Marina Kolobova: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Mikko Myrskylä: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2023-022, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: Economic and social development are closely linked with fertility. Several studies have shown that the relationship follows an inverse J-shape: at low and intermediate levels of development, the association is negative; and at high levels of development the association is reversed and becomes positive. However, more recent research building on subnational and U.S. data found only mixed evidence for the inverse J-shape. In this paper, we draw on subnational data on development and fertility in the U.S. states between 1969 and 2018 to examine the relationship between development and fertility. Using a longitudinal approach and addressing several criticisms of the fertility reversal hypothesis, our results support the inverse J-shaped pattern, reconciling trends observed in the U.S. with those in other high-income countries. We also discuss potential explanations for why studies might not detect the inverse J-shape. Moreover, our findings provide insights into the mechanisms that link development and fertility, showing that gender equality and economic uncertainty mediate the relationship between development and fertility.

Keywords: USA; economic and social development; fertility; fertility determinants (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-022.pdf (text/html)
https://osf.io/mrzb5/?view_only=98d4065e951d4b8bb1d03198fa12ddd8 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-022

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-022

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Peter Wilhelm ().