Analysing biases in genealogies using demographic microsimulation

Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal, Diego Alburez-Gutierrez and Emilio Zagheni
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Liliana P. Calderón-Bernal: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Diego Alburez-Gutierrez: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany
Emilio Zagheni: Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

No WP-2023-034, MPIDR Working Papers from Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany

Abstract: An incomplete understanding of biases affecting the representativeness of genealogies has hindered their full exploitation. We report on a series of experiments on synthetic populations assessing how structural biases in ascendant genealogies affect the accuracy of demographic estimates. Using the SOCSIM microsimulation programme and Swedish fertility and mortality data (1751–2022), we analyse three biases: lineage survival, limited coverage of collateral kin, and selective omission. Comparing demographic measures from ‘fully recorded’ and ‘bias-infused’ synthetic populations, we find that across the period, including only direct ancestors can underestimate total fertility rate (TFR) (≈ −42%) and overestimate life expectancy at birth (e0) (≈ +33%), mainly due to missing infant, child, and some young adult deaths. Including direct ancestors’ offspring shifts TFR to overestimation (≈ +21%) while improving mortality estimation across all ages, with e0 overestimation reduced to ≈ +1.8%. Our study shows that completeness of family trees is essential for obtaining accurate demographic estimates from genealogies. Keywords: genealogies, microsimulation, biases, historical demography, kinship

Keywords: genealogy; historical demography; kinship; microsimulation (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: J1 Z0 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2023
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-dem, nep-evo and nep-his
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1)

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https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2023-034.pdf (text/html)
https://github.com/liliana-calderon/SOCSIM_Genealogies (text/html)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2023-034

DOI: 10.4054/MPIDR-WP-2023-034

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