Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data

Katja Landau, Stephan Klasen and Walter Zucchini

No 481, SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research from DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP)

Abstract: We investigate the accuracy of ex ante assessments of vulnerability to income poverty using cross-sectional data and panel data. We use long-term panel data from Germany and apply di erent regression models, based on household covariates and previous-year equivalence income, to classify a household as vulnerable or not. Predictive performance is assessed using the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC), which takes account of false positive as well as true positive rates. Estimates based on cross-sectional data are much less accurate than those based on panel data, but for Germany, the accuracy of vulnerability predictions is limited even when panel data are used. In part this low accuracy is due to low poverty incidence and high mobility in and out of poverty.

Keywords: vulnerability; poverty; ROC; German panel data (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C23 C52 I32 O29 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 42 p.
Date: 2012
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eur, nep-for and nep-ltv
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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Related works:
Working Paper: Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data (2012)
Working Paper: Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty Using Long-Term Panel Data (2012)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwsop:diw_sp481

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