Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda

Carlos Bozzoli, Tilman Brück and Tony Muhumuza

No 1059, Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research

Abstract: We analyse the role of mass violent conflict in influencing individual expectations. We hypothesise that individuals are likely to report negative expectations if they were exposed to conflict events in the past. We combine individual and household level data from the Northern Uganda Livelihood Survey of 2007 with a disaggregated conflict exposure index based on the Armed Conflict Locations Events Data (ACLED). We run logistic regression models to study the strength of the association between conflict and expectations. Results indicate that conflict intensity is correlated with a decrease in the probability of expecting economic recovery. The effect of conflict on general welfare however is less robust.

Keywords: Conflict; expectations; war; welfare (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: D84 H56 O10 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 15 p.
Date: 2010
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-afr and nep-dev
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.361417.de/dp1059.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Working Paper: Conflict Experiences and Household Expectations on Recovery: Survey Evidence from Northern Uganda (2011)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1059

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin from DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Bibliothek ().