The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity

Masako Ikefuji, Jan Magnus and Andrey Vasnev

ISER Discussion Paper from Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka

Abstract: In Bayesian theory, the data together with the prior produce a posterior. We show that it is also possible to follow the opposite route, that is, to use data and posterior information (both of which are observable) to reveal the prior (which is not observable). We then apply the theory to equilibrium climate sensitivity as reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in an attempt to get some insight into the prior beliefs of the IPCC scientists. It appears that the data contain much less information than one might think, due to the presence of correlation. We conclude that the prior in the fifth IPCC report was too low, and in the sixth report too high.

Date: 2023-11
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-env
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.iser.osaka-u.ac.jp/static/resources/docs/dp/2023/DP1217.pdf

Related works:
Working Paper: The role of data and priors in estimating climate sensitivity (2023)
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:dpr:wpaper:1217

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in ISER Discussion Paper from Institute of Social and Economic Research, The University of Osaka Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Librarian ().