Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model

Benjamin Monnery, François-Charles Wolff and Anaïs Henneguelle

No 2019-20, EconomiX Working Papers from University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX

Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of semi-liberty as an alternative to prison on recidivism in France. Our analysis is based on a unique dataset comprising 1,445 offenders, all eligible to semi-liberty. In the absence of an instrumental variable affecting access to semi-liberty but unrelated to recidivism, we turn to selection-on-observable methods as well as sensitivity analyses to bound the causal effect of interest. Our results under treatment exogeneity (Cox regressions) and conditional independence (matching) show that semi-liberty is associated with a reduction of 22% to 31% in offenders’ hazard of recidivism in the five years after release. The estimated effects decrease, but remain negative and significant when credible confounders are introduced. Overall, our analysis lends strong support for a beneficial effect of semi-liberty compared to prison.

Keywords: Recidivism; semi-liberty; halfway houses; prison; survival analyses; sensitivity analyses (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C18 K14 K42 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 29 pages
Date: 2019
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-law
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https://economix.fr/pdf/dt/2019/WP_EcoX_2019-20.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
Journal Article: Prison, semi-liberty and recidivism: Bounding causal effects in a survival model (2020)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2020)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2019)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2018)
Working Paper: Prison, Semi-Liberty and Recidivism: Bounding Causal Effects in a Survival Model (2018)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:drm:wpaper:2019-20

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