Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change

Allen C. Kelley and Robert M. Schmidt

No 95-37, Working Papers from Duke University, Department of Economics

Abstract: The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus "non-significant" correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined using contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor- force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.

JEL-codes: J1 O4 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 1995
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (230)

Published in DEMOGRAPHY, Vol. 32, 1995, pages 543-555

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