Do WAEMU Countries Exhibit a Regional Business Cycle?. A Simulated Markov Switching Model for a Western Africa area

B.F. Aka ()

Applied Econometrics and International Development, 2004, vol. 4, issue 4

Abstract: This paper examines the issue of existence and identification of a regional business or economic cycle in aggregated West African economic and monetary union (WAEMU) economy and single member countries’ real GDP as well, by using a Markov regime switching model and the Gibbs Sampling simulation method. We found similarities of business cycle among individual countries. Comparing countries’ cycles to the aggregated one, the chronology and amplitude of Côte d’Ivoire’s business cycle appears to be closer to the union’s cycle. Using the real GDP data the aggregated WAEMU business cycle can be characterized, according to its mean duration (8 years), as a Juglar type cycle.

Keywords: Growth, Business cycles; Non-linear Time series; Markov Switching model; Gibbs sampling (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C11 C22 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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