Local-Explosive Approximations to Null Distributions of the Johansen Cointegration Test, with an Application to Cyclical Concordance in the Euro Area

Guillaume Chevillon

No WP1210, ESSEC Working Papers from ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School

Abstract: This paper considers approximating the nite sample null-distribution of a test statistic as its asymptotic distribution under a local alternative. We focus on the Likelihood Ratio test for the rank of cointegration and use nonlinearities that represent some nite sample distributional features. Reliable approximations are obtained using a class of locally explosive models. An empirical evaluation of the concordance of European business cycles through cointegration shows that some standard corrections lead to underestimating the number of cointegrating relations and induce volatile results.

Keywords: Cointegration; Finite samples; Local-asymptotics; Business Cycle Convergence (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C12 C32 E32 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 48 pages
Date: 2012-10-12
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ebg:essewp:dr-12010

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