Longer-term effects of monetary growth on real and nominal variables, major industrial countries, 1880-2001

William G. Dewald and Alfred Haug

No 382, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Abstract: We study how fluctuations in money growth correlate with fluctuations in real and nominal output growth and inflation. We pick cycles from each time series that last 2 to 8 (business cycles) and 8 to 40 (longer-term cycles) years, using band-pass filters. We employ a data set from 1880 to 2001 for eleven countries, without gaps. Fluctuations in money growth do not play a systematic and important role at the business cycle frequency. However, money growth leads or contemporaneously affects nominal output growth and inflation in the longer run. This result holds despite differences in policies and institutions across countries. JEL Classification: E3

Keywords: 2 to 8 year cycles; 8 to 40 year cycles.; Band-pass filters (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2004-08
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (23)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2004382

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