The transmission of US cyclical developments to the rest of the world

Isabel Vansteenkiste () and Stephane Dees

No 798, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: The US economy is often considered to play a pivotal role in global growth. Such a view has persisted despite the falling contribution of the US economy to global growth (from almost 30% in 1950 to around 20% at present). In this paper, we analyse the veracity of this conjecture and consider the implications of cyclical developments in the US economy on the rest of the world. Overall we find that while US economic developments would indeed affect the rest of the world, developments in most countries and regions remain primarily affected by idiosyncratic shocks as well as by global factors, which do not originate from a single country. JEL Classification: E32, E37, F41

Keywords: business cycle; factor models; Global VAR model; Markov-Switching Model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-08
Note: 288980
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (24)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp798.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007798

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().