The role of the exchange rate for adjustment in boom and bust episodes

Ludger Schuknecht, Reiner Martin and Isabel Vansteenkiste ()

No 813, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: Numerous countries have experienced boom-bust episodes in asset prices in the past 20 years. This study looks at stylised facts and conducts statistical and econometric analysis for such episodes, distinguishing between industrialised countries that experienced external adjustment (via real effective exchange rate depreciation during busts) and those that relied on an internal adjustment process (and experienced no depreciation). The study finds that different adjustment experiences are correlated with the degree of macroeconomic imbalances and balance sheet problems. Internal adjustment seems more prevalent when financial vulnerabilities, excess demand and competitiveness loss remain relatively contained in the boom. In the bust, internal adjusters experience more protracted but less deep downturns than external adjusters as imbalances unwind more slowly. Some Central and East European EU Member States are currently experiencing strong credit and asset price growth in conjunction with rapid economic expansion. Against this background the experience of other countries may raise awareness of related policy challenges. JEL Classification: E32, E63, E65

Keywords: Booms and busts; competitiveness.; exchange rates; external and internal adjustment; financial imbalances (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2007-09
Note: 175489
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (8)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp813.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2007813

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().