What drives returns to euro area housing? Evidence from a dynamic dividend-discount model

Paul Hiebert and Matthias Sydow

No 1019, Working Paper Series from European Central Bank

Abstract: We apply a dynamic dividend-discount model to analyse unexpected housing returns in a panel of eight euro area countries which together comprise 90% of euro area GDP. The application of this model allows for a de-composition of house price movements into movements in rent (cash-flow) and expected return news components. The empirical application of the model involves the estimation of a panel vector autoregressive model (VAR) for four variables –excess return to housing, rents, the real interest rate and real disposable per capita income– using quarterly data over the period 1985-2007. This empirical investigation yields two main findings. First, the bulk of the variability of house price move-ments in the panel of countries analysed can be attributed to movements in the rental yield. Indeed, perturbations to rents appear to result in a one-to-one analogous movement in house prices over the long term once controlling for changes in expected returns. Second, evidence from the dynamic profile of shocks along with the negative co-movement between changing rental yield expectations and changing expected returns on housing assets would suggest that euro area house prices overreact to news. JEL Classification: R21, C33, G12

Keywords: cash flow news; house price; housing rental yield; panel VAR estimation; return decomposition (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2009-03
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-eec and nep-ure
Note: 339054
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1019.pdf (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20091019

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in Working Paper Series from European Central Bank 60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Official Publications ().