Growth Forecasts and News about Monetary Policy

Nina Karnaukh
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Nina Karnaukh: Ohio State U

Working Paper Series from Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics

Abstract: I find that 30-minute changes in bond yields around scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcements are predictable with the pre-FOMC Blue Chip professionals' revisions in GDP growth forecasts. A positive pre-FOMC GDP growth revision predicts a contractionary policy news shock (positive change in bond yields), a negative GDP growth revision predicts an expansionary policy news shock (negative change in bond yields). Failing to account for this predictability biases the estimates of monetary policy effects on the economy. First, the Fed's information effect dissipates as the truly unpredictable policy news shock does not affect professionals' beliefs about the economy. Second, net policy shock has a more negative impact on future actual GDP, than the raw policy shock.

JEL-codes: E43 E52 G12 G17 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020-10
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cba, nep-mac and nep-mon
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecl:ohidic:2020-27

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