Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle

Mark R. Roswenzweig and Christopher Udry
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Mark R. Roswenzweig: Yale University

Working Papers from Yale University, Department of Economics

Abstract: We look at the effects of rainfall forecasts and realized rainfall on equilibrium agricultural wages over the course of the agricultural production cycle. We show theoretically that a forecast of good weather can lower wages in the planting stage, by lowering ex ante out-migration, and can exacerbate the negative impact of adverse weather on harvest-stage wages. Using Indian household panel data describing early-season migration and district-level planting- and harvest-stage wages over the period 2005-2010, we find results consistent with the model, indicating that rainfall forecasts improve labor allocations on average but exacerbate wage volatility because they are imperfect.

JEL-codes: J20 O12 O13 O15 Q12 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2014-01
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-agr, nep-for and nep-ger
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (35)

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http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2377363

Related works:
Journal Article: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather, and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
Working Paper: Rainfall Forecasts, Weather and Wages over the Agricultural Production Cycle (2014)
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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:ecl:yaleco:128

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