Determination of Models of Simple Regression and Multivariate Analysis for the Forecast of the Electricity Price in Colombia at 2030

Nelson Javier Hern ndez Bueno, Mar a de los ngeles Pinto Calder n, Yecid Alfonso Mu oz Maldonado and Adalberto Ospino Castro
Additional contact information
Nelson Javier Hern ndez Bueno: Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia
Mar a de los ngeles Pinto Calder n: Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia
Yecid Alfonso Mu oz Maldonado: Department of Engineering, Universidad Aut noma de Bucaramanga, Colombia,
Adalberto Ospino Castro: Department of Energy, Universidad de la Costa, Colombia

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2018, vol. 8, issue 5, 202-211

Abstract: The electricity price in Colombia responds to demographic, economic, climatic changes, among others, that generate uncertainty and therefore risks in the electric production. Considering that the decision-making process has a great importance in the electricity market and that the participation of generators in energy auctions is usually based on intuition and previous experience, the need to study the possible alternatives and methods that minimize the risks before deciding some important matter can be appreciate. In this article, the estimation of the behavior of electrical energy prices in Colombia at the year 2030 for different scenarios and there are propose the following scientific models: (i) Simple regression; (ii) Econometric model. As result are obtained forecasts for each model, identifying that the econometric model has the lowest margin of error compared to the historical data that considers the behavior of different variables for the forecast.

Keywords: Econometric Modeling; methods of statistical simulation; forecasting; electricity price. (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C13 C15 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2018
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/download/6415/3944 (application/pdf)
https://www.econjournals.com/index.php/ijeep/article/view/6415/3944 (text/html)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eco:journ2:2018-05-26

Access Statistics for this article

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy is currently edited by Ilhan Ozturk

More articles in International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy from Econjournals
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Ilhan Ozturk ().