Projection of Biodiesel Production in Indonesia to Achieve National Mandatory Blending in 2025 using System Dynamics Modeling

Fitriyanti Mayasari, Rinaldy Dalimi and Widodo Wahyu Purwanto
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Fitriyanti Mayasari: Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
Rinaldy Dalimi: Department of Electrical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia
Widodo Wahyu Purwanto: Department of Chemical Engineering, Universitas Indonesia, Indonesia.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2019, vol. 9, issue 6, 421-429

Abstract: Biodiesel has been produced since 2006 in Indonesia and regulation of biodiesel blending has been set, but the actual blending rate was never reached the target. The research aims to increase biodiesel production to achieve mandatory target and reduce diesel oil import. It will project biodiesel production achieving demand in Indonesia until 2025 and proposes some strategies to increase blended biodiesel production by constructing system dynamics modeling. The research shows, there are 3 scenarios to increase biodiesel production; palm oil cultivation land, palm oil productivity and refined CPO shared. To meet blended biodiesel demand, cultivation land should be increased to 3.2-6.5% per year, productivity should be fixed to 12.54 ton/ha and refined CPO shared should be adjusted to 56.9-65.4%. This scenario also will reduce diesel oil import to 7.16 9.82 million kL per year. Refined CPO shared is the most influenced variable; therefore the government should consider to make refined CPO export limitation policy.

Keywords: Blended Biodiesel Production; System Dynamics Modeling; Refined CPO Export (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Z (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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