The impact of Russian Energy Resources on the Economic Growth of the EU: Using Computational Intelligence Algorithms

Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal and Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea
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Mohamed F. Abd El-Aal: Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Arish University, North Sinai, Egypt,
Abdelsamiea Tahsin Abdelsamiea: Department of Economics, Faculty of Commerce, Mansoura University, Mansoura, Egypt.

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2023, vol. 13, issue 6, 597-602

Abstract: This study explores the impact of Russian oil and natural gas on the economic growth of the European Union. The Gradient boosting algorithm was relied on to determine this effect because of its high prediction metrics (MSE: 0.002, RMSE: 0.040, MAE: 0.034, R2: 99.9). The study depended on three scenarios. The first scenario is that Russia's exports of both products decline to half the year 2022, then to the quarter of 2023, and this second scenario, then the worst scenario, is to prevent Its exports of both products in 2024. But the result is a decline in the European Union's economic growth in 2022 to (-2.15%), then it turns to 2.85% in 2023, and then to 3.86% in 2024, i.e., in the worst scenario year. The evidence for this is that the economies of these countries reduced their growth rates in 2020 (the Covid-19 crisis) to -5.96%, which turned to positive growth in 2021, amounting to 5.38%. This indicates these economies' ability to adapt in the short term by providing alternatives to the crisis.

Keywords: Gradient Boosting; Russia-Ukraine War; European Union Growth; Crude Oil; Natural Gas (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C80 C81 C87 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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