The Dynamics of Tourism, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions in Uzbekistan: An ARDL Approach

Azizjon Qodirov, Dilfuza Urakova, Mirzoxid Amonov, Manzura Masharipova, Ergash Ibadullaev, Fozil Xolmurotov and Feruz Matkarimov
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Azizjon Qodirov: Bukhara State University, 200117, M. Ikbal, Bukhara, Uzbekistan
Dilfuza Urakova: Bukhara State University, 200117, M. Ikbal, Bukhara, Uzbekistan
Mirzoxid Amonov: Bukhara State University, 200117, M. Ikbal, Bukhara, Uzbekistan
Manzura Masharipova: Mamun University, 220900, Qibla Tozabog, Khiva, Uzbekistan
Ergash Ibadullaev: Mamun University, 220900, Qibla Tozabog, Khiva, Uzbekistan
Fozil Xolmurotov: Mamun University, 220900, Qibla Tozabog, Khiva, Uzbekistan
Feruz Matkarimov: Urgench State University, 220100, Khamid Olimjon 14, Urgench, Uzbekistan

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 2024, vol. 14, issue 6, 365-370

Abstract: In this study, we examined the impact of key macroeconomic variables on the sustainability of tourism in Uzbekistan using open data from the World Bank from 2000 to 2023. The selected variables for the study include the number of international tourists, GDP, CO2 emissions, and exchange rates. Considering the importance of climate issues in ensuring sustainable tourism, the study combines these factors using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to assess their long-term relationships. We chose this model due to its flexibility in dealing with variables of different integration orders. The results of the bounds testing procedure confirm the existence of a long-term cointegration relationship between the dependent variable (international tourist arrivals) and the selected macroeconomic indicators. Specifically, the study results indicate that GDP growth, exchange rate fluctuations, and CO2 emissions positively affect tourist arrivals to Uzbekistan. The findings of this study underscore the importance of infrastructure development and macroeconomic stability in attracting international tourists while emphasizing the need for sustainable international practices to mitigate environmental impacts. This study contributes to understanding the complex interrelationship between tourism development and macroeconomic variables in the context of developing countries and aids decision-making in this area.

Keywords: CO2 Emission; Tourism; GDP; Exchange Rate; ARDL (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: P48 Q54 Z3 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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