India: Election Outcomes and Economic Performance

Poonam Gupta and Arvind Panagariya

No 9999, Working Papers from School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

Abstract: In this paper we provide the first analysis of the relationship of growth to election outcomes in India. Using a comprehensive data set consisting of all candidates contesting the election, we also provide the first systematic quantitative analysis of the 2009 Lok Sabha elections. Our key result is that superior growth performance at the level of the state gives a definite advantage to the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. Conversely, poor growth performance of a state is associated with poor electoral performance by the candidates of the state incumbent party in the constituencies of that state. We offer two additional results: personal characteristics such as education and wealth have at most a small impact on election outcomes; and, at least in the 2009 election, incumbency at all levels contributed positively to election prospects of a candidate.

Keywords: India; Election outcomes; Economic performance; Incumbency (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Pages: 37 pages
Date: 2011-04, Revised 2011-04
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-cdm and nep-pol
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