Assessing sustainability of winter wheat production under climate change scenarios in a humid climate — An integrated modelling framework

D. El Chami and A. Daccache

Agricultural Systems, 2015, vol. 140, issue C, 19-25

Abstract: The proposed study draws a novel framework to assess the sustainability of winter wheat under climate change conditions and irrigation as an adaption measure to reduce yield variability. The methodology combines outputs from a general circulation model (GCM), the Food and Agriculture Organization's (FAO) crop growth model (AquaCrop), a life cycle assessment (LCA) model and economic modelling. Long-term observed climate data (1970–1991) collected in Cambridge (Cambridgeshire, UK) were used to downscale the projected climate data from the GCM for 2050. The structural characteristics of the case study are representative of a typical farm in this UK region. A six-year average wheat price (2007–2012) was considered and the irrigation costs for the economic model were calculated assuming the market prices in 2014. Sensitivity analysis assessed in the longer term included the expected variations due to the increase in world wheat prices and the energy costs.

Keywords: Growth model; Arable crops; Adaptation; Sustainability assessment; Climate change; Humid climate (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2015
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (6)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:140:y:2015:i:c:p:19-25

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2015.08.008

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