Forecasting future crop suitability with microclimate data

A.S. Gardner, I.M.D. Maclean, K.J. Gaston and L. Bütikofer

Agricultural Systems, 2021, vol. 190, issue C

Abstract: Against a background of unprecedented climate change, humanity faces the challenge of how to increase global food production without compromising the natural environment. Crop suitability models can indicate the best locations to grow different crops and, in doing so, support efficient use of land to leave space for, or share space with, nature. However, challenges in downscaling the climate data needed to drive these models to make predictions for the future has meant that they are often run using national or regional climate projections. At finer spatial scales, variation in climate conditions can have a substantial influence on yield and so the continued use of coarse resolution climate data risks maladaptive agricultural decisions. Opportunities to grow novel crops, for which knowledge of local variation in microclimate may be critical, may be missed.

Keywords: Crop model; Food security; Future climate change; Microclimate; Sustainable agriculture; WOFOST (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:agisys:v:190:y:2021:i:c:s0308521x21000378

DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2021.103084

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