COVID-era forecasting: Google trends and window and model averaging

Mary Llewellyn, Gordon Ross and Joshua Ryan-Saha

Annals of Tourism Research, 2023, vol. 103, issue C

Abstract: •Google Trends data can provide extra information when historic data are unsuitable.•Informative Google Trends data may show short-term fluctuations in unstable periods.•Model averaging using recent performance adapts to short-term changes in relevance.•Window averaging helps to mitigates against uncertainty in the relevance period.•Edinburgh tourism demand forecasts are improved by such window and model averaging.

Keywords: COVID-19; Google Trends; Forecasting; Model averaging; Tourism demand; Window averaging (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2023
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:103:y:2023:i:c:s0160738323001330

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2023.103660

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