Daily tourism volume forecasting for tourist attractions

Jian-Wu Bi, Yang Liu and Hui Li

Annals of Tourism Research, 2020, vol. 83, issue C

Abstract: A novel approach based on long short-term memory (LSTM) networks that can incorporate multivariate time series data, including historical tourism volume data, search engine data and weather data, is proposed for forecasting the daily tourism volume of tourist attractions. The proposed approach is applied to forecast the daily tourism volume of Jiuzhaigou and Huangshan Mountain Area, two famous tourist attractions in China. Through these two applications, the validity of the proposed approach is verified. In addition, the forecasting power of the approach with historical data, search engine data and weather data is stronger than that without search engine data or without both search engine data and weather data, which provides evidence that search engine data and weather data are of great significance to tourism volume forecasting.

Keywords: Tourism volume forecasting; Long short-term memory networks; Search engine data; Weather data; Multivariate time series forecasting (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2020
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (29)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:83:y:2020:i:c:s0160738320300670

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2020.102923

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