Visitor arrivals forecasts amid COVID-19: A perspective from the Europe team

Anyu Liu, Laura Vici, Vicente Ramos, Sauveur Giannoni and Adam Blake

Annals of Tourism Research, 2021, vol. 88, issue C

Abstract: In a context in which the tourism industry is jeopardised by the COVID-19 pandemic, and potentially by other pandemics in the future, the capacity to produce accurate forecasts is crucial to stakeholders and policy-makers. This paper attempts to forecast the recovery of tourism demand for 2021 in 20 destinations worldwide. An original scenario-based judgemental forecast based on the definition of a Covid-19 Risk Exposure index is proposed to overcome the limitations of traditional forecasting methods. Three scenarios are proposed, and ex ante forecasts are generated for each destination using a baseline forecast, the developed index and a judgemental approach. The limitations and potential developments of this new forecasting model are then discussed.

Keywords: COVID-19; Tourism demand forecasting; Composite index; Judgmental forecast (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (19)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:anture:v:88:y:2021:i:c:s016073832100044x

DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2021.103182

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