Day-ahead electricity price forecasting via the application of artificial neural network based models

Ioannis P. Panapakidis and Athanasios S. Dagoumas

Applied Energy, 2016, vol. 172, issue C, 132-151

Abstract: Traditionally, short-term electricity price forecasting has been essential for utilities and generation companies. However, the deregulation of electricity markets created a competitive environment and the introduction of new market participants, such as the retailers and aggregators, whose economic viability and profitability highly depends on the spot market price patterns. The aim of this study is to examine artificial neural network (ANN) based models for Day-ahead price forecasting. Specifically, the models refer to the sole application of ANNs or to hybrid models, where the ANN is combined with clustering algorithm. The training data are clustered in homogenous groups and for each cluster, a dedicated forecaster is employed. The proposed models are characterized by comprehensive operation and by high level of flexibility; different inputs can be taken under consideration and different ANN topologies can be examined. The models are tested on a data set that consists of atypical price patterns and many outliers. This approach makes the price forecasting problem a more challenging task, providing evidence that the proposed models can be considered as useful and robust forecasting tools to the actual needs of market participants, including the traditional generation companies and self-producers, but also the retailers/suppliers and aggregators.

Keywords: Artificial neural networks; Electricity price forecasting; Day-ahead market; Time-series clustering (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (97)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2016.03.089

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