Probabilistic assessment of realizing the 1.5 °C climate target

Adriana Marcucci, Evangelos Panos, Socrates Kypreos and Panagiotis Fragkos

Applied Energy, 2019, vol. 239, issue C, 239-251

Abstract: In this paper we develop a probabilistic assessment of the energy transition and economic consequences of limiting global warming by the end of the century to 1.5 °C. The assessment is made by applying a Monte Carlo analysis in MERGE-ETL, a technology rich integrated assessment model with endogenous learning. We assume a deterministic 1.5 °C target and uncertainty in other factors such as economic growth, resources, and technology costs. The distributions of these variables are obtained by the PROMETHEUS stochastic world energy model. The study assumes early actions and quantifies the market penetration of low carbon technologies, the emission pathways and the economic costs for an efficient reduction of greenhouse gas emissions such that the temperature limit is not exceeded. We find that achieving the 1.5 °C Paris target is technically feasible but it requires immediate and global action. Key pillars in the decarbonization of the energy system are large deployment of renewable energy, early retirement of fossil based power plants, energy efficiency and negative emission technologies. Furthermore, that the availability of biomass resources, the rapid decrease of the costs of renewables and improvements in energy efficiency are the factors with the largest effect on the cost of carbon.

Keywords: Probabilistic assessment; Uncertainty; Monte Carlo analysis; Integrated assessment model; 1.5 °C target (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: Q41 Q43 Q47 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (9)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261919301813
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:239:y:2019:i:c:p:239-251

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.01.190

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().