Assessment of new solar radiation nowcasting methods based on sky-camera and satellite imagery

Francisco J. Rodríguez-Benítez, Miguel López-Cuesta, Clara Arbizu-Barrena, María M. Fernández-León, Miguel Á. Pamos-Ureña, Joaquín Tovar-Pescador, Francisco J. Santos-Alamillos and David Pozo-Vázquez

Applied Energy, 2021, vol. 292, issue C, No S0306261921003354

Abstract: This work proposes and evaluates methods for extending the forecasting horizon of all-sky imager (ASI)-based solar radiation nowcasts and estimating the uncertainty of these predictions. In addition, we evaluated procedures for improving the temporal resolution and latency of satellite-imagery-derived solar nowcasts. Based on these contributions, we assessed the reliability of ASIs and satellite-derived solar radiation nowcasts, with 1-min time-resolution and up-to-90-min ahead. The study was conducted in a location in Southern Spain using a set of cloudy days, specifically selected as representative of the most challenging conditions regarding solar radiation nowcasting. The results reveal that the use of ASI-based models provide low benefits compared to the use of satellite-based models for point solar radiation nowcasting. Given the frequency of occurrence of the different sky types in the study area, the results suggest that the use of a simple smart persistence algorithm, in combination with a low-resolution satellite nowcasting model could be an adequate choice, avoiding the challenges associated with the use of ASIs.

Keywords: Solar energy; Solar irradiance nowcasting; Short-term solar irradiance forecasting; All-sky imagers (ASI); MSG satellite images (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2021
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (14)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.116838

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