Temporal collaborative attention for wind power forecasting

Yue Hu, Hanjing Liu, Senzhen Wu, Yuan Zhao, Zhijin Wang and Xiufeng Liu

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 357, issue C, No S0306261923018664

Abstract: Wind power serves as a clean and sustainable form of energy. However, its generation is fraught with variability and uncertainty, owing to the stochastic and dynamic characteristics of wind. Accurate forecasting of wind power is indispensable for the efficient planning, operation, and grid integration of wind energy systems. In this paper, we introduce a novel forecasting method termed Temporal Collaborative Attention (TCOAT). This data-driven approach is designed to capture both temporal and spatial dependencies in wind power generation data, as well as discern long-term and short-term patterns. Utilizing attention mechanisms, TCOAT dynamically adjusts the weights of each input variable and time step based on their contextual relevance for forecasting. Furthermore, the method employs collaborative attention units to assimilate directional and global information from the input data. It also explicitly models the interactions and correlations among different variables or time steps through the use of self-attention and cross-attention mechanisms. To integrate long-term and short-term information effectively, TCOAT incorporates a temporal fusion layer that employs concatenation and mapping operations, along with hierarchical feature extraction and aggregation. We validate the efficacy of TCOAT through extensive experiments on a real-world wind power generation dataset from Greece and compare its performance against twenty-two state-of-the-art methods. Experimental results demonstrate that TCOAT outperforms existing methods in terms of both accuracy and robustness in wind power forecasting. Moreover, we conduct a generality study on an additional real-world dataset from a different climate condition and wind power characteristics. The results show that TCOAT can achieve comparable or better performance than the state-of-the-art methods, confirming the generalization ability of TCOAT.

Keywords: Wind power forecasting; Temporal collaborative attention; Attention mechanism; Multivariate time series; Data-driven method (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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Citations: View citations in EconPapers (5)

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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2023.122502

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