Measuring carbon neutrality and exploring the threshold effects of its driving factors: Evidence from China

Jianbao Chen, Shimei Weng, Weiliang Tao, Malin Song and Linling Zhang

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 373, issue C, No S0306261924012078

Abstract: With increasingly prominent of climate concerns, promoting carbon neutrality has become a pressing issue. In contrast to most recent studies, which utilized a linear perspective and focused on accelerating carbon neutrality solutions from carbon sources, this study innovatively measures the carbon neutrality index of 30 provinces in China from 2004 to 2020 based on multichannel sources of carbon sinks and sources. It explores threshold effects of its drivers using a spatial autoregressive threshold panel model. The empirical results indicate a non-optimistic overall carbon neutrality situation in China; however, its polarization between provinces has weakened. Furthermore, China's provincial carbon neutrality index has a positive spatial spillover effect, and there is a complex spatial nonlinear relationship between carbon neutrality and its major driving factors, such as human activities and climate change, within the two regimes divided by economic development. These findings offer crucial guidance for China and other developing countries in formulating and implementing effective carbon-neutral planning. For example, developed areas should develop new low-carbon technologies, increase environmental protection expenditures, introduce green and clean enterprises, and expand vegetation areas. Less developed areas must eliminate their reliance on fossil fuel energy, optimize their industrial structure and layout, and strengthen environmental regulations and resource protection awareness.

Keywords: Carbon neutrality; Carbon sinks; Spatiotemporal evolution; Driving factor; Spatial autoregressive threshold panel model (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
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DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.123824

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