Accounting and decomposition of China's CO2 emissions 1981–2021

Jianhong Ma, Ning Wang, Zihao Chen, Libo Wang, Qiyang Xiong, Peilin Chen, Hongxia Zhang, Ying Zheng and Zhan-Ming Chen

Applied Energy, 2024, vol. 375, issue C, No S0306261924014879

Abstract: The Five-Year Plan (FYP) effectively guides China's short- to medium-term development goals, but limited data hinder research on long-term CO2 performance within the FYP framework. This study compiles sectoral CO2 emissions from detailed fuels in 1981–2021, employing the input–output model and structural decomposition technique to examine their performance and driving forces. Our results show that the growth rates of national emissions increased continuously from the 6th to the 11th FYP (1981–2011), gradually declined thereafter (2011−2020), but rose significantly in 2021. Urban household emissions per capita fell by 40%, while rural household emissions rose by 209%. The mix effect (or substitution effect) drove households to increase their use of oil and natural gas, reducing reliance on coal. Coal was the primary emissions source in industrial sectors, specifically in manufacturing and utilities. Elevated coal- and oil-related emissions were primarily due to the level effect, whereas the mix effect drove natural gas-related emissions. Manufacturing and construction were major sources of embodied emissions. Emissions intensity had modest mitigation effects, and the input structure effect was relatively low. Our results underscore the need for China to expedite the substitution of fossil fuels with non-fossil energy sources to achieve its low-carbon goals outlined in the 14th FYP.

Keywords: Five-year plan; CO2 emission; Input–output framework; Structural decomposition analysis (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2024
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations:

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0306261924014879
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:appene:v:375:y:2024:i:c:s0306261924014879

Ordering information: This journal article can be ordered from
http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/bibliographic
http://www.elsevier. ... 405891/bibliographic

DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2024.124104

Access Statistics for this article

Applied Energy is currently edited by J. Yan

More articles in Applied Energy from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().