Predicting the future of disruptive technologies: The method of alternative histories

Vlad Krotov

Business Horizons, 2019, vol. 62, issue 6, 695-705

Abstract: With digital technologies shaping competition in many industries, predicting the future of potentially disruptive technologies becomes an essential task of business leaders concerned with the survival and success of their organizations. Looking into the future of disruptive technologies requires a philosophical stance and a practical method that accommodates the inherent uncertainty and nonlinearity of the path of disruptive innovations. Unfortunately, much of the current thinking in relation to adoption and diffusion of innovations is rather linear and deterministic. This article proposes a set of philosophical principles, together with a practical brainstorming method, for glimpsing into the future of disruptive technologies. The method of alternative histories is based on the traditional brainstorming techniques and the philosophical ideas of Imre Lakatos, Roy Bhaskar, Bruno Latour, and Nassim Taleb.

Keywords: Managerial decision making; Management strategy; Market disruption; Disruptive technologies; Internet of things; Alternative histories (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2019
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (2)

Downloads: (external link)
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0007681319300941
Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:bushor:v:62:y:2019:i:6:p:695-705

DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2019.07.003

Access Statistics for this article

Business Horizons is currently edited by C. M. Dalton

More articles in Business Horizons from Elsevier
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Catherine Liu ().