The effectiveness and costs of nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 containment: A border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach

Yongheng Deng, Lina Meng and Yinggang Zhou

China Economic Review, 2022, vol. 75, issue C

Abstract: We examine the effectiveness and costs of alternative nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for COVID-19 containment. Using a border discontinuous difference-in-difference approach, we find that the enforcement of rigid NPIs reduces the number of new COVID-19 cases by 10.8% in China, comparied with cities with less NPIs. Among the three NPIs, contact tracing is much more effective than the other two NPIs, namely, public information provision and social distancing. The connections of mayors to the upper-level politicians reinforce the city's implementation of rigid NPIs. These networks also serve as an informal signaling channel to the neighboring cities, encouraging the adjacent cities to impose strict NPIs to curb the spread of COVID-19. We further estimate the long-term costs of the NPIs – a net present value of 2153 yuan per child in the human capital loss attributed to more prolonged school closure alone.

Keywords: COVID-19; Nonpharmaceutical interventions; Effectiveness; Costs; Spatial spillover (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: H7 I1 O5 R5 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2022
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (3)

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Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chieco:v:75:y:2022:i:c:s1043951x22001079

DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2022.101849

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