 An Ebola model with hyper-susceptibilityBaba Seidu, C.S. Bornaa and Oluwole D. Makinde Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 138, issue C Abstract: The Ebola Virus Disease is a zoonosis whose reservoir is fruit bats among other primates. Once the virus enters a human population from its supposed zoonotic reservoir, it can then spread through contact with infected persons or their body fluids. The people that are most susceptible to infection are close relatives of infected persons, healthcare givers and those dealing with deceased persons. We classify these people as being hyper-Susceptible and develop a mathematical model to study the impact of hyper-Susceptibility on the dynamics of Ebola virus disease outbreak. The model is shown to have a globally stable disease-free equilibrium point whenever the basic reproduction number R0 is less than unity. The model is also shown to exhibit forward bifurcation, which suggests the possibility of eradication through keeping R0 below unity. Disease spread is also shown to be highly sensitive to contact rate, transmission probability, death rate and hyper-Susceptibility. Numerical simulation of the model is also done to confirm the analytical results established. Keywords: Epidemiology; Ebola; Bifurcation; Stability; Hyper-susceptibility (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920303374 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.109938 Access Statistics for this article Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier |
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