 Parameter estimation of uncertain differential equation with application to financial marketXiangfeng Yang, Yuhan Liu and Gyei-Kark Park Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 2020, vol. 139, issue C Abstract: Uncertain differential equation (UDE) has been widely applied in the financial market, and many option pricing formulas are derived based on UDE. But the existing literature don’t consider the parameter estimation of UDE, and the parameters are just assumed as some given constants. This paper will present an approach to estimate the unknown parameter of UDE from discretely sampled data via α-path method for the first time. And the concepts of forecast value and confidence interval are introduced to predict the future value in a UDE. As five special UDEs, the parameters estimations of arithmetic Liu process, geometric Liu process, uncertain Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, uncertain mean-reverting process, and uncertain exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process are also derived, and the corresponding numerical examples are given. Furthermore, this paper proposes a means to estimate unknown parameters for the general geometric Liu process, and as an application, this method will be successfully used in Alibaba stock. Keywords: Uncertainty theory, Uncertain differential equation, Parameter estimation; stock price (search for similar items in EconPapers) Downloads: (external link) Related works: Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304240 DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110026 Access Statistics for this article Chaos, Solitons & Fractals is currently edited by Stefano Boccaletti and Stelios Bekiros More articles in Chaos, Solitons & Fractals from Elsevier |
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